Exit Polls Scheduled for Tamil Nadu After Voting Concludes

Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections: Polling Begins Amid Tight Security

Polling for all 234 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu began on Thursday morning, with over 5.73 crore voters set to decide the electoral fate of 4023 candidates in fray. The counting of votes will be held on May 4.

The election is crucial for Chief Minister MK Stalin, who is seeking a historic second term for himself and his party DMK. However, Stalin's push for a rare back-to-back mandate comes at a moment when the state's political rhythm appears to be shifting. The AIADMK, which is now realigned with the NDA, is attempting a comeback, while the entry of actor-turned politician Vijay's TVK has added a new, unpredictable dimension to the contest.

The Election Commission has issued an advisory to media platforms and broadcasters, banning exit poll results until May 4. The advisory prohibits the conducting and publishing of exit polls through print or electronic media from 7 am on April 9 until 6.30 pm on April 29.

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What are Exit Polls?

Exit polls are surveys conducted among voters immediately after they cast their vote, aimed at predicting the outcome of an election before official results are announced. These polls are typically carried out by research agencies and media organisations, which deploy surveyors at selected polling stations to ask voters about their choice, along with basic demographic details like age, gender, and sometimes caste or income group.

Accuracy of Exit Polls

Exit polls are not always accurate. Their reliability depends on factors such as sample size, geographic spread, voter willingness to disclose their choice, and the methodology used. In 2021, most exit polls broadly predicted a victory for the DMK-led alliance but significantly overestimated its margin.

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In the last Assembly elections, the DMK-led alliance secured 159 seats with a vote share of 45.72 per cent. The rival AIADMK-led alliance won 75 seats and recorded a vote share of 40.02 per cent.

Where to Watch Exit Polls

You can track the latest exit poll predictions and analysis on Moneycontrol, along with comprehensive coverage of the Assam Assembly elections. Exit polls will also be broadcast live on CNN-News18 on May 4 after the counting of votes is completed.