Reliance Industries Q4 Earnings Preview: Analysts Anticipate Steady Performance Amid O2C Volatility and Telecom Growth

Reliance Industries Expected to Post Steady Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Earnings

Reliance Industries Ltd is expected to report steady fiscal fourth-quarter earnings despite the ongoing war in West Asia, a key source of global crude supply. Analysts estimate the company's revenue at Rs 2.81 lakh crore and net profit at Rs 16,943.5 crore.

The Bloomberg survey shows revenue estimates based on 11 analysts, EBITDA at Rs 47,108.3 crore based on 14 analysts, and net profit estimates based on six analysts.

Global energy markets turned volatile in the March quarter after the West Asia war began on February 28, pushing prices higher as disruptions hit the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil supplies pass. The quarter was defined by the single largest supply shock since 2022, with sharp dislocation across commodity markets.

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Reliance's oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business is expected to reflect a mixed performance during the quarter. Refining margins improved sharply amid elevated product cracks, but the benefit is likely to be partly offset by higher crude costs, increased freight and insurance expenses, and disruptions in physical markets due to the Middle East conflict.

Brokerages have flagged that marketing margins remained under pressure, with fuel retailing impacted by under-recoveries and adverse pricing dynamics. ICICI Securities said O2C earnings are likely to be hit by higher crude cost, rise in shipment/insurance cost, and losses in the retail fuel segment, alongside weaker petchem spreads.

However, while the O2C segment is expected to see sequential pressure due to these cost and margin headwinds, stronger refining spreads would provide earnings support.

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Reliance Jio is expected to remain a key growth driver, with steady subscriber additions and a marginal improvement in average revenue per user (ARPU), supporting earnings growth in the digital services segment. Emkay expects subscriber additions of around 8 million with ARPU inching up sequentially.

The retail business is also expected to deliver moderate growth, aided by continued expansion and stable consumption trends. Equirus Research said that retail is likely to post mid-single digit growth, continuing the recovery trend seen in recent quarters.

These consumer-facing segments are expected to lend stability to overall earnings, offsetting volatility in the core energy business.

Reliance's upstream oil and gas segment is likely to see some pressure due to modest production declines and higher operating costs during the quarter. Emkay expects upstream EBITDA to decline sequentially due to higher opex and a 2% QoQ decline in gas production.

Across the gas value chain, supply disruptions and elevated LNG prices led to volume constraints and margin compression. PL Research flagged that West Asia disruptions weigh on performance, with gas availability impacted by supply disruptions and higher input costs.

The March quarter saw one of the most turbulent periods for the energy sector in recent years. Brent crude prices rose sharply, and LNG markets tightened due to supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

Equirus highlighted that Brent averaged around $82 per barrel during the quarter, while ICICI Securities pointed to the Strait of Hormuz disruption as a key factor affecting supply chains.

Domestic policy measures, including excise duty cuts on fuels and changes in LPG pricing, provided only partial relief to the sector and influenced marketing economics during the quarter.