India's Goods Exports May Suffer 7-8% Decline in March Amid West Asia Crisis

India's Merchandise Exports Projected to Decline Due to West Asia Crisis

India's merchandise exports are expected to experience a decline of 7-8 percent in March, primarily due to the ongoing crisis in West Asia. The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President, SC Ralhan, made this prediction on April 8, citing disruptions in key shipping routes, logistical constraints, and uncertainty in the region as the main causes.

According to FIEO, India's merchandise exports stood at approximately $437.4 billion in the fiscal year 2025 (FY25), while total exports, including services, reached $824.9 billion. The conflict in Iran has severely impacted shipments to Middle East markets, leading to a significant decline in exports.

Despite the current challenges, the overall impact of the West Asia crisis on India's exports is expected to be more modest, with a 2-3 percent decline predicted for the full year FY26. FIEO President Ralhan expressed optimism about the country's services sector, which is expected to grow 5-6 percent in FY26, driven by strong services shipments.

A 15-day ceasefire in the region, if sustained, could potentially alleviate some of the disruptions and allow Indian consignments to reach the Gulf region within a typical transit time of about seven days. However, Ralhan cautioned exporters against taking unnecessary risks, given the fragile ceasefire and evolving geopolitical situation.

| Export Category | FY25 | Projected Growth Rate for FY26 | | --- | --- | --- | | Merchandise Exports | $437.4 billion | -7-8% (March) / -2-3% (FY26) | | Total Exports (including services) | $824.9 billion | 5-6% |

Note: The projected growth rates are based on the information provided by FIEO President SC Ralhan.