Crude Oil Prices Surge 19% on the MCX This Week: What Lies Ahead for Markets?

Crude Oil Prices Surge Amid Global Tensions

Crude oil futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) witnessed a slight increase on Friday, mirroring strong global trends. The May contract was trading at approximately ₹9,200 per barrel, up ₹25 or roughly 0.27% in early trading. During the session, the contract fluctuated within a range of ₹9,033 to ₹9,249, reflecting mild volatility.

Global Crude Oil Prices Comparison

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Crude oil prices rose 19% on MCX this week, with the market largely driven by the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, which previously accounted for around 20% of global oil production before the conflict, remains essentially blocked. The seizure of two cargo ships by Iran has underscored the challenges faced by Washington in managing the route.

On the global front, Brent crude futures increased by $1.93, or 1.8%, reaching $107 a barrel at 0805 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose by 76 cents, or 0.8%, to $96.61. Over the week, Brent has climbed 18% and WTI by 15%, marking the second-largest weekly increases since the onset of the war.

Crude oil prices have been on an uptrend due to worries about a potential military escalation in the Middle East after Iran released footage showing commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with a lack of advancements in re-opening this crucial waterway. Experts predict that crude oil prices may continue to support higher levels if tensions persist.

Market Outlook

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According to Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments Ltd, Brent crude has surged past $106 as tensions between the US and Iran intensify around the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that markets are increasingly pricing in the risk of supply disruptions, with geopolitical uncertainty keeping sentiment elevated. While a ceasefire could ease prices, the absence of de-escalation may continue to support crude at higher levels.

Echoing the cautious optimism, Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said MCX crude oil is trading near ₹9,110 after rebounding sharply from ₹7,600 levels, driven by supply concerns. He highlighted ₹9,250 as a key resistance; a sustained breakout above this could push prices towards ₹9,400– ₹9,580. On the downside, ₹9,020 remains immediate support, with further levels at ₹8,900 and ₹8,730.

On the global front, Ponmudi added that US oil is hovering near $96, having crossed the $95 resistance zone. A move above $99 could extend the rally towards $104.50 and even $110, while failure to hold above $95 may weaken momentum. Overall, he maintained a cautiously bullish outlook, contingent on evolving geopolitical developments.