Nifty 50, Bank Nifty Outlook: Gains Expected to Continue as Traders Monitor US-Iran Developments

Market Gains Sustain Amid Uncertainty

The Indian market may extend its gains for a second consecutive session following a decline in oil prices, but the sustainability of those gains remains a key factor to watch amid uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Participants are also eagerly awaiting the potential US-Iran talks as the April 22 deadline for the two-week ceasefire approaches.

Market Performance

On April 17, the Nifty 50 rallied 157 points (0.65 percent) to 24,354, while the Bank Nifty climbed 479 points (0.85 percent) to 56,566, with healthy market breadth. A total of 2,200 shares advanced against 785 shares that were under pressure on the National Stock Exchange.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One, notes that the Nifty has now gained for the second consecutive week, rallying over 2,000 points from recent lows and retracing more than 50 percent of the decline from the swing high near 26,000. Market sentiment has clearly improved, and momentum currently favors the bulls, backed by a couple of sustained bullish gaps. Prices have now reached a critical technical juncture, which needs to be decisively crossed for the uptrend to extend further.

| Index | Resistance | Support | | --- | --- | --- | | Nifty 50 | 24,500 | 24,100 | | | 24,700 | 23,900 |

A key confluence zone of resistance is placed in the 24,500–24,800 range, aligning with the 50–89 EMA and the 61.8 percent retracement of the recent fall. A sustained breakout above this band would be essential to signal a continuation of the uptrend in the coming weeks. In the near term, until this is breached, some consolidation cannot be ruled out at higher levels.

However, given the recent price action, dips are likely to be bought into, suggesting a continuation of the buy-on-dips approach. On the downside, the 24,000–23,900 zone, which coincides with the recent bullish gap, is seen as immediate support. Below this, the higher bottom near 23,550, aligning with the 20 DEMA, remains a crucial support level.

Key Strategies

• Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 24,200, with a stop-loss of 23,900, targeting 24,700–24,900.
• Buy Nifty Futures around 24,250, with a stop-loss of 24,100, targeting 24,550–24,650.
• Avoid chasing gap-up momentum into the resistance zone. Buy Nifty Futures around the 24,300–24,350 zone for a target of 24,570, with a stop-loss below 24,275.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One, notes that the Bank Nifty extended its gains for the second consecutive week; however, price action remained largely range-bound during the period. Technically, the index continues to oscillate within a key confluence zone defined by the 50 and 89 EMAs, which also coincides with the 50 percent and 61.8 percent retracement of the recent decline from all-time highs. This range is placed between 55,800 and 57,200. A decisive breakout from this zone is likely to trigger the next leg of momentum.

Given the current undertone, the bias appears tilted toward the upside, which could push the index towards the 58,000–58,500 levels. Considering the high-beta nature of the index and the ongoing results season, volatility may persist; hence, a buy-on-dips approach is recommended.

| Index | Resistance | Support | | --- | --- | --- | | Bank Nifty | 57,000 | 55,800 | | | 57,800 | 55,500 |

Key Strategies

• Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 56,000, with a stop-loss of 55,500, targeting 57,800–58,500.
• Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 56,400, with a stop-loss of 56,200, targeting 56,800–57,000.
• Avoid chasing momentum into the bearish gap. Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 56,500, with a stop-loss below 56,200, for a target of 57,097–57,700.