Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Face Test of Previous Day's High as Ceasefire Deadline Looms Amid Market Consolidation

Market Outlook: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Trading Range-bound Ahead of Ceasefire Deadline

The Nifty 50 may continue to consolidate with range-bound trading during the weekly F&O expiry session, as traders monitor developments between the US and Iran ahead of the ceasefire deadline, while oil prices remain below the $100 per barrel mark. The technical setup, with a higher high–higher low formation, still signals a positive bias despite soaring volatility.

| Index | Previous Close | Current Close | | --- | --- | --- | | Nifty 50 | 24,354 | 24,365 | | Bank Nifty | 56,565 | 56,582 |

The technical setup indicates an attempt toward 24,400–24,500 is possible, but sustainability is key to watch. However, 24,200–24,200 can act as an immediate support zone, followed by 23,900 as a crucial support level. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty, on the higher side, may target a move toward the 56,700–57,100 zone again (near the 200–100 DEMA), while 56,200–55,800 can be the immediate support area, according to experts.

Market breadth turned in favor of bears, with 1,855 shares declining against 1,123 advancing shares on the National Stock Exchange.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities, suggests that the Nifty closed almost flat in the last trading session, facing strong resistance near the 24,500 level. However, there has been aggressive Put writing on the lower side, right from the 24,000 to 24,300 levels. Hence, if there is no escalation in geopolitical tensions overnight, then the range for the weekly expiry will be 24,500–24,000.

From a weekly perspective, until there is a strong close above 24,500 levels, the index is likely to consolidate within a range or even correct toward the 24,000 to 23,500 range, as the India VIX has jumped back to 18.79 levels, up by 9.2 percent, ahead of the ceasefire deadline on Wednesday. A close above 24,500 will indicate that the index has absorbed short-term volatility; otherwise, there is a higher probability of a correction in the near term.

Key Resistance and Support Levels

• Nifty 50:
  • Key Resistance: 24,500, 24,800
  • Key Support: 24,000, 23,800
• Bank Nifty:
  • Key Resistance: 57,000, 59,000
  • Key Support: 55,000, 54,000

Strategy

Jay Thakkar suggests selling Nifty Futures at 24,364, with a stop-loss above 24,500, targeting 24,000 and 23,800. Jigar S Patel suggests selling Nifty Futures in the 24,400–24,300 zone, with a stop-loss at 24,550, targeting 24,000. Somil Mehta suggests buying Nifty Futures on dips around the 24,240 level, with a stop-loss at 23,900, targeting 24,750–25,000. Aditya Thukral suggests selling Nifty Futures only below 24,300, with a stop-loss at 24,400, targeting 24,150 and 24,100.

Bank Nifty Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar suggests selling Bank Nifty Futures at 56,550, with a stop-loss above 57,500, targeting 55,000 and 54,000. Jigar S Patel suggests selling Bank Nifty Futures in the 56,750–56,650 zone, with a stop-loss at 57,200, targeting 55,900. Somil Mehta suggests buying Bank Nifty Futures on dips around the 56,350 level, with a stop-loss at 55,700, targeting 57,250–57,800. Aditya Thukral suggests selling Bank Nifty Futures only below 56,500, with a stop-loss at 56,800, targeting 55,900.