Musk Expresses Caution Over Robotaxi Rollout Amid Slow Progress

Tesla Robotaxi Rollout Slower Than Expected, Analysts Say

The rollout of Tesla's fledgling robotaxi business is going more slowly than expected, several Wall Street analysts said, following an uncharacteristically downbeat update from CEO Elon Musk. During Tesla's first-quarter earnings call on Wednesday, Musk struck a more cautious tone, citing safety and technical issues as major concerns.

Musk had previously outlined an aggressive expansion plan for Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing operation. In July last year, shortly after Tesla launched a small-scale pilot robotaxi network in Austin, Texas, the CEO said robotaxis would be available to "half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year" and increase at a "hyper-exponential rate." However, on Wednesday's call, Musk said he hoped to have robotaxis and driverless vehicles in "a dozen or so states" by the end of the year, and emphasized the importance of taking a "cautious approach" to avoid injuries or fatalities.

| Analysts' Expectations vs. Reality | | --- | --- | | 2025: Robotaxis available to "half the population of the U.S." | 2026: Robotaxis available in "a dozen or so states" | | 2026: "Hyper-exponential" growth rate | 2026: Exponential growth starting towards the end of the year and certainly next year |

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Tesla's $1.5 trillion market value is tied to investors' belief that it will soon operate a vast fleet of robotaxis and sell millions of autonomous-driving software subscriptions. Analysts at William Blair described Wednesday's earnings call as "low energy" and said Musk "struck an unfamiliar tone—reserved and cautious—about his usual favorite subjects." "The robotaxi rollout has been far slower than expected," they wrote.

Musk has a long history of unfulfilled promises around self-driving vehicles, dating back a decade. In January 2025, he acknowledged being known as "the boy who cried wolf" on driverless technology, before adding: "There's a damn wolf this time, and you can drive it." It was clear from Wednesday's call that the expected timelines around a large-scale robotaxi expansion are getting pushed back.

During the call, Musk said robotaxis would likely "not be super material this year," but "will be material probably in a significant way next year." Tesla plans to build its robotaxi business around the Cybercab, a two-seater vehicle designed to be fully autonomous, without a steering wheel or pedals. Musk said Wednesday that Tesla had begun Cybercab production, but reiterated that initial production "will be very slow."

Musk also got into the nitty-gritty challenges of rolling out driverless technology at scale. On last April's call, he said he was confident there would be "millions of Teslas operating autonomously" in the second half of 2026. This time, he said it didn't make sense to deploy the technology widely ahead of a forthcoming software update that will improve safety. "The limiting factor for expansion is really rigorous validation, making sure things are completely safe," Musk said.

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Analysts took the delays in stride, with Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein saying he believes Tesla is being cautious because "the stakes are very high." "They don't want to risk an incident because they weren't extremely safe and weren't 100% confident," he said. However, Tesla shares were down more than 3% in afternoon trading Thursday.