Gold and Silver Prices Face Reversal: Key Levels to Watch as Rally Loses Steam

Gold, Silver Prices in India Fall as International Markets Decline Amid US-Iran Tensions

Gold and silver prices in India dropped on Friday, tracking weakness in international bullion markets, which are headed for a weekly decline amid escalating US-Iran tensions in the Middle East. The MCX gold rate for June futures contracts fell by ₹26, or 0.02%, to ₹1,51,735 per 10 grams, marking a decline of more than 2% this week so far. Meanwhile, the MCX silver price for May futures contracts traded lower by ₹1,928, or 0.80%, at ₹2,39,585 per kg, with a decline of more than 6% this week.

In the international market, gold prices edged lower and were set to log a weekly loss after a four-week winning streak. The spot gold price declined 0.2% to $4,685.23 per ounce and has dropped around 3% so far this week. US gold futures for June delivery also eased 0.5% to $4,700.50.

The escalation of US-Iran tensions has led to a surge in crude oil prices, heightening concerns over inflation and the prospect of interest rates staying elevated for longer. Brent crude oil price has risen nearly 17% this week, trading above $105 per barrel, as the strategic Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed despite an extension of the Iran ceasefire.

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Investors will closely track monetary policy decisions next week from central banks in Japan, the US, the eurozone, and the UK, along with accompanying commentary, as most are expected to keep rates unchanged. The ongoing geopolitical risk premium also needs to be monitored closely, with the dollar index potentially facing resistance around the 100 mark, while a weaker rupee could act as an additional catalyst for a rally in the bullion.

According to Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst – Technical Research at Choice Broking, the near-term trend for gold and silver appears moderately bearish. She attributed this to rising oil prices, elevated inflation concerns, and a reduced safe-haven appeal, alongside continued geopolitical uncertainties such as blockades, naval activity, and extended US-Iran ceasefire timelines.

The CME Group's margin cut on COMEX gold and silver futures, effective after April 24, 2026, could boost market participation and volatility. A decisive breakout from key technical levels will likely determine the next directional move.

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Gold Price Outlook

Gold prices are hovering around ₹1,51,100, below the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) placed at ₹1,52,100 and ₹1,51,100, respectively. A breakdown below ₹1,50,000 could drag prices towards ₹1,48,300 – ₹1,47,500. On the upside, a breakout above ₹1,55,500 may trigger further gains towards ₹1,57,000 – ₹1,60,000.

Unless COMEX gold sustains above $4,750, near-term upside may remain capped, with immediate support at $4,600 per ounce and resistance in the $4,730 – $4,810 range. For MCX gold price, support is seen at ₹1,49,500 and resistance around ₹1,53,000.

Silver Price Outlook

Trivedi expects COMEX silver price to trade in the $71 – $78.50 range, while MCX silver rate may move between ₹2,45,000 and ₹2,55,000 in the coming week. MCX silver is currently near ₹2,40,650, below its 20- and 50-day EMAs at ₹2,44,920 and ₹2,46,900. A breakdown below ₹2,36,500 could push prices towards ₹2,32,400 – ₹2,29,300, while a sustained move above ₹2,47,000 – ₹2,50,000 may lead to a recovery towards ₹2,55,000 – ₹2,60,000.